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 Research |
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17.9 Percent Real Unemployment - How Solid is the Recovery? |
| The unemployment picture painted by today’s jobs report headlines is much rosier than reality. Still, they were enough to provide a serious pop for stocks. What are the real numbers and will reality seriously ding the market? - 03-05-2010 |
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Is The New Bull Market Just a Hoax? |
| The small shock induced by the late January decline has been forgotten. Wall Street sees no reason for stocks to decline, even though a number of key components of the economy are in bad shape. For investors right now, it’s about being in the right assets at the right time. What are those? - 03-04-2010 |
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Is S&P 1,100 Another Chance for the Bears? |
| So far, S&P 1,150 is the high for the year. Immediately following the high, the S&P dropped to 1,045 in just a few days and thereby damaged a number of previously bullish technicals. The S&P has not recovered to 1,100. Is this the second and final chance for the bears? - 02-23-2010 |
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The Mystery of the Price to Earnings Ratios solved |
| More investors are willing to buy stocks at Dow 10,000 than they were at Dow 7,000. After a 70% plus rally, shouldn’t valuations become a concern? This article dissects the different forms of P/E ratios and its significance in pin-pointing a market bottom.
- 02-16-2010 |
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Can Emerging Markets Kick-Start the World Indexes? |
| As of late, the U.S. market seems to be in a funk. The recent decline has erased as much as three months worth of gains and major support lines have been broken. What about “Big Brother?” Can China and its BRIC cousins lift the U.S. indexes to new highs? - 02-09-2010 |
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Real Unemployment 18 Percent - Will Stocks Falter? |
| The unemployment picture painted by today’s jobs report headlines is much rosier than reality. Yet, the Dow broke below 10,000 for the first time in months. The real unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is much higher and scarier than they want you to believe. What's next? - 02-05-2010 |
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What Economic Indicators Are Really Telling Us |
| The past few weeks have been packed with economically sensitive pieces of information, such as job numbers, earnings and a host of other economic wet blankets. But what indicators really count and what really drives the stock market? - 02-04-2010 |
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Earnings - How Will They Affect The Market? |
| We've now seen disappointing earnings results from financial giants to old "brick and mortar" companies. There has been little reason for cheer. How will that affect stock prices and the Market? - 02-03-2010 |
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Is the Market Out-of-Sync with Main Street? |
| Consumer confidence rises from last month, yet Main Street continues to deliver bad news. Why the contradiction? - 01-29-2010 |
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Relief Rally or Further Declines – What’s Next? |
| How fast things can change on Wall Street. Less than two weeks ago, investors were counting their un-hatched profit eggs and expecting gains of 10%, 15% or more for 2010. After a 700 point drop, however, the confidence in higher prices has been dinged. Will another relief rally bring new highs or will we see a continuation of the decline? - 01-28-2010 |
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2010 Outlook for Stocks, Gold, Silver and US Dollar |
| If you are an emotional investor, chances are you’ve been buying stocks. Wall Street is cheering that buy-decision and promises higher prices ahead. But wait, the last time we heard prices were going up was in 2007. Let’s use old fashioned common sense to put together a solid 2010 forecast for the major asset classes. - 01-22-2010 |
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Up, Down or Sideways – What’s Next For Stocks? |
| Earnings season is upon us. Thus far we’ve seen stocks go up on bad and good news. What will it take to lift stocks further? Leading up to this earnings season, stocks have rallied 70%, is all the good news already baked in? Is there any more upside potential? - 01-20-2010 |
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Earnings - Will They Lift or Sink The Market? |
| It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it’s a big deal – earnings season. This earnings season is unique in many different ways. High expectations and an already stretched market are sure to deliver surprises. Should you buy the rumor and sell the news? - 01-15-2010 |
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Is the January Winning Streak Over? |
| Until today, every trading day in January was an up day. Alcoa, the first company to report earnings, disappointed. Aside from positive earnings, what other factors could possibly drive up prices? Investors may have bought the rumor of higher prices, but should they sell before the (bad) news? - 01-12-2010 |
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BubbleWatch - Are Bonds and Real Estate at Risk? |
| The market dropped 55% in 2008, how could there be any bubbles? Even though none of the issues that caused the meltdown have been solved, stocks rallied 65% from their March 2009 lows. Toxic assets are still in the system and are likely to haunt investors in 2010. - 01-08-2010 |
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4 Major Economic Stumbling Blocks for 2010 |
| Smooth sailing would be a good description for most of last year’s stock performance. The same is not quite the case for the economy, but rising stocks are masking any problems there might be. Here are some stumbling blocks that could prove to be a deal breaker even for rising stocks. - 01-06-2010 |
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3 Money-Making Lessons Learned From 2009 |
| 2009 was beautiful, stocks were up and investors may conclude that no real lessons can be learned from the year's review. 2009 ended much the same way 2008 did, even investor sentiment was similar. However, 2008 was followed by a quick and painful meltdown, so there may be some beneficial lessons after all. - 01-04-2010 |
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Will 2010 Be as Good as 2009? |
| If you would have done the opposite of what Wall Street was telling you since 2007, you would have avoided a major market crash and bought stocks ten months ago at Dow 6,500. Now again, Wall Street is saying “BUY” despite a 65% rally. Is this your cue to sell? - 12-29-2009 |
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Is The Market Rigged? |
| We are living in unique times. In fact, the market’s performance has been so “unique” that many believe the market is being manipulated. This may sound absurd if it wasn’t for an executive order Ronald Reagan put into place, designed to manipulate the stock market. - 12-18-2009 |
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Could the Government Prevent Another Major Collapse? |
| After the first major bailout, stocks tumbled 30%; after the second, 15%. Dozens of bailouts later, stocks are nearing their fall 2008 levels. Are the government’s initiatives potent enough to avert another major collapse? - 12-17-2009 |
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Market Doomed? 401k Plans Sail Calmly |
| The public remains indifferent to predictions of market doom. - 12-16-2009 |
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What Will Happen After The Year-End Rally? |
| Last year’s Santa Claus and year-end rally lifted the major U.S. indexes by nearly 10%. But what happened thereafter? The market crashed 30% in less than 90 days. Unlike last year, stocks rallied 65% into December. The potential for a major decline is even bigger today than it was 12 month ago. - 12-14-2009 |
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Will a Rising Dollar Wreak Havoc For Stocks and Gold? |
| For several months, the U.S. dollar has been the lynchpin for other asset classes. Courtesy of a falling dollar, gold and stocks have continued to climb. But what if the dollar gathers steam? In fact, the dollar has broken a major barrier and appears to be moving up. - 12-09-2009 |
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What Really Happened In Dubai? |
| There is much more to the “Dubai episode” than meets the eye. Did you know that the market’s decline was nearly one day delayed and that the worst piece of news was actually met with rising prices? What’s the real meaning of the market’s reaction to Dubai’s problems? - 12-08-2009 |
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Below 50-Day MA – Will Financials Drag The Market Lower? |
| Many view the 200-day moving average as the holy grail of investing while others use it as just one component of a balanced approach. Regardless of which category you fall into, the MA for a leading sector – financials – has given a sell signal. A look at other indicators doesn’t bode well either. - 12-08-2009 |
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Deal or No Deal – Should You Buy in or Cash Out? |
| Behind the facade of every portfolio a secret tug of war is going on – a battle of risk and reward, greed and modesty. At a time when the market has stalled at S&P 1,110 and Dow 10,500, with signs of weakness becoming more pronounced, it’s time to ask the tough questions – Deal or No Deal? - 12-04-2009 |
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Is it Too Late to Buy? |
| There’s a party on Wall Street. Everyone’s invited to join and buy stocks, gold, silver and everything else. If you don’t join, you are probably considered the oddball out. But can you still join the party without risking a major hangover?
- 12-02-2009 |
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After A 60 % Rally – Are Stocks Overvalued? |
| More investors are willing to buy stocks at Dow 10,000 than they were at Dow 7,000. After a 60% rally, shouldn’t valuations become a concern? This article dissects the different forms of P/E ratios and its significance in pin-pointing a market bottom. - 11-27-2009 |
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Remember The Bank Stress Test? The Worst-Case Scenario is Here! |
| Time heals all wounds they say. How about rising stocks? After a 65% rally hardly anyone remembers, let alone cares about, what happened half a year ago – the bank stress test. Does the fact that the worst-case scenario has already been met spell trouble for stocks? - 11-24-2009 |
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Weighing The Facts: Will The Next Leg Be Up or Down? |
| It’s easy to get side-tracked by the news investors are bombarded with every day. One day the news is positive, the next it’s negative. This article shows how to cut to the chase rather than subjecting yourself to this emotional, and financial, rollercoaster. - 11-20-2009 |
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